Jerome Powell and the Fed are set to hold rates at 3.5%–3.75% despite Trump pressure, leaving Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana rangebound as traders focus on Powell’s tone over future cuts.

Jerome Powell and Federal Reserve opens 2026 in a holding pattern, and markets are pricing it in.​

Fed meeting: timing and access

The Federal Open Market Committee meets on January 27–28, with its policy statement due at 2 p.m. ET on January 28, followed by Jerome Powell’s press conference. Investors can watch the decision and Q&A on the Fed’s website and its official YouTube channel. For India-based traders, the rate decision lands at 12:30 a.m. IST and Powell speaks at 1:00 a.m. IST on Thursday, reflecting the shift from US Daylight Saving Time.​

Policy path: a deliberate pause

This is the Fed’s first scheduled policy meeting of 2026 and it comes after three straight 25 basis point cuts, which have taken the federal funds rate down to a 3.5%–3.75% range. Despite “atypical political pressure from the Trump administration to cut rates,” the central bank is “widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged” this week. Akshat Garg, Head – Research & Product at Choice Wealth, argues that “all signs point to the central bank hitting the pause button at this week’s meeting, likely holding rates steady in the 3.50%–3.75% range.”

Garg frames this as a strategic breather: investors should treat it as a “wait-and-see” phase rather than a pivot, with Powell “perfectly comfortable sitting on his hands until the economic picture clears up.” After “aggressively cutting rates late last year,” the committee wants earlier moves to work through “the plumbing of the economy” before contemplating further easing.​

Macro backdrop: disinflation with risk

“A pause would align with the Fed’s data-dependent approach,” says Seema Srivastava, Senior Research Analyst at SMC Global Securities. She notes that inflation has “eased from prior peaks but remains above the Fed’s 2% goal,” while consumer spending is “steady,” labour conditions are “relatively tight,” and financial markets have “loosened modestly on expectations of future cuts.” Holding rates here, she adds, tempers “overly aggressive market bets on near-term cuts” and “reaffirm[s] the Fed’s commitment to prudent monetary stewardship” guided by evidence rather than “short-term sentiment or external pressures.”​

Crypto market check: 24‑hour moves

Across digital assets, price action into the Fed is firm but not euphoric. Bitcoin (BTC) trades near $89,100, roughly flat over the last 24 hours as spot moves cluster between about $88,900 and $89,500 with volumes above $34 billion. Ethereum (ETH) changes hands around $3,008, up roughly 2.5% versus the prior day as daily turnover tops $29.3 billion. Solana (SOL) trades close to $126.9, gaining about 2.4% in 24 hours.

For macro and crypto traders alike, tonight’s message is simple: watch the tone, not just the dot plot—and keep one eye on how risk assets digest a Fed that is in no hurry to cut again.